Demand for cement is likely to rise by around 8% in financial year 2025, which is improved compared to 6–7% expansion during the third quarter. Demand is picking up after a sluggish beginning to the year. This is due to improved rural demand as well as government expenditure on infrastructure. Prices of cement have also increased. Apart from the South, prices rose by 2.5–3.5% across most areas, with the greatest rises in the North, West, and Central areas. Prices rose again in April, which should benefit firms to make a higher profit per tonne, though profits could still be down slightly on last year.

Ultratech Cement is likely to gain from acquiring Kesoram Industries and India Cements, although profits may be less for the time being since these new ventures aren’t performing well yet. JK Cement and Shree Cement are likely to perform well due to firm prices in their sectors. Ambuja Cements will also improve after a weak third quarter.

As per Mangesh Bhadang of Centrum Broking, Dalmia Bharat surprised with better fourth-quarter results, at Rs 925 per tonne, despite low demand and prices in the South. He added that companies with lower business in South India must do better this quarter.

Shree Cement should be a strong performer, with profitability of about Rs 1,400 a tonne, benefiting from high sales and healthy margins. Ramco Cement, however, is struggling since it has exposure primarily in the South, where demand is sluggish and input costs have risen on account of increased limestone royalty rates in Tamil Nadu. Although recent hikes may assist, Ramco Cement’s prospects in the South remain uncertain.

Going by the current trends, Shree Cement and Ambuja Cements are the top picks among large corporate players and JK Lakshmi Cement is the darling of mid-cap companies, said Bhadang.